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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -0.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$36.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $602.6k volume · 405 trades · since Jun 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$14.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
81%
52 closed
Wallet age · markets
129d
51 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 77¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $16.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcef117…