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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +4.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.3 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$110.9k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$224.1k
Last 30 days +$169 · $2.48M volume · 4,410 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$44.1k
Open P&L · 53 positions
−$262.1k
Closed-position win rate
67%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
132 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.3 | +22.7 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -51.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢ | $13.7k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $23.5k | missed |
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $15.1k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $29.6k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xce80d8…