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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$14.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$32.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.59M volume · 3,706 trades · since Feb 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$231.2k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$259
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
250d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $14.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xce3958…