← Wallets
+$377No · avg 97.1¢ → 98.6¢ · $26.2k+$66No · avg 94.8¢ → 96¢ · $5,240+$131Yes · avg 90.9¢ → 93.5¢ · $4,667+$70Yes · avg 93.9¢ → 95.7¢ · $3,795+$45Yes · avg 95¢ → 96.3¢ · $3,343+$183No · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,050+$131No · avg 88¢ → 92¢ · $3,021−$61Yes · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $2,853
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +10.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+10.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$122.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$32.0k
Last 30 days −$2,101 · $3.95M volume · 6,359 trades · since Feb 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$119.2k
Open P&L · 49 positions
−$108.6k
Closed-position win rate
91%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
2032d
555 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +10.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $13.0k | called |
 Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $12.7k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $12.7k | missed |
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