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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +43.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+43.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$28.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,682
Last 30 days +$0 · $541.7k volume · 977 trades · since Nov 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$19.3k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$23.6k
Closed-position win rate
59%
169 closed
Wallet age · markets
331d
234 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +43.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $10.5k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xca4707…