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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -96.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-96.3 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$39.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$33.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $95.7k volume · 27 trades · since Apr 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$33.8k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$42
Closed-position win rate
58%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
200d
14 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -96.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $29.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc7e1a1…