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qifen

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.2 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$777.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$119.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.17M volume · 886 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$265.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$149.4k
Closed-position win rate
81%
16 closed
Wallet age · markets
137d
22 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports321.8+7.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceMED BUY France @ 60¢ $74.7k
3.9× usual
60% 104d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ $20.0k20% 104d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL Yes @ 38¢ $37.9k62% 104d agocalled
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ $10.5k21% 104d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ $10.1k80% 104d agomissed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ $10.0k20% 104d agomissed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ $19.0k85% 105d agocalled
Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY England @ 64¢ $29.0k64% 105d agocalled
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ $23.9k21% 105d agocalled
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢ $15.4k83% 106d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ $19.3k82% 106d agomissed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ $77.9k
4.1× usual
39% 106d agomissed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ $64.1k
3.3× usual
68% 107d agocalled
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL Yes @ 20¢ $31.6k80% 107d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL Yes @ 32¢ $50.9k
2.7× usual
68% 107d agocalled
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ $10.8k81% 107d agomissed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ $36.0k14% 109d agomissed
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY England @ 54¢ $10.8k54% 111d agocalled
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢ $10.8k90% 114d agomissed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $10.7k18% 128d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 8.6¢ $12.9k9% 136d agomissed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ $15.9k11% 136d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ $13.6k84% 136d agomissed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ $47.2k
2.5× usual
16% 136d agocalled
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ $57.3k
3.0× usual
16% 136d agomissed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY Yes @ 8.8¢ $13.2k9% 136d agomissed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢ $14.3k89% 136d agocalled
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY Yes @ 11¢ $30.0k11% 137d agomissed

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