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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -30.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-30.5 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$38.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$74.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $956.2k volume · 933 trades · since Apr 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$20.0k
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$43.8k
Closed-position win rate
68%
41 closed
Wallet age · markets
190d
59 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.4 | -20.2 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -51.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $11.2k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 29¢ | $12.1k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 31¢ | $15.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc65896…