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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -22.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-22.4 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$178.6k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$16.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.14M volume · 668 trades · since Jul 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$123.1k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$139.6k
Closed-position win rate
85%
33 closed
Wallet age · markets
831d
35 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 1 | 1.9 | -22.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $29.3k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $11.4k | called |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $57.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.7¢ | $41.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc5d343…