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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +49.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+49.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$163.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$414.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.28M volume · 1,825 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$489.5k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$73.8k
Closed-position win rate
64%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
122d
48 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | +49.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $30.8k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $76.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $18.4k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 56¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $12.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc57f19…