onlyinvegas

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +9.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?+$289No · avg 95¢ → 97.8¢ · $10.4k Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?−$91No · avg 87¢ → 85¢ · $5,208 Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?+$281No · avg 89¢ → 94.8¢ · $4,483 Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?−$6,448No · avg 69¢ → 27¢ · $4,157 Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?+$91No · avg 80¢ → 83¢ · $2,517 Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?−$256No · avg 81¢ → 73¢ · $2,302 Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?+$202No · avg 85¢ → 96¢ · $1,773 Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?+$134Yes · avg 68¢ → 81¢ · $837

Price-adjusted edge

+9.3 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$51.8k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$25.5k

Last 30 days −$37.9k · $4.08M volume · 8,535 trades · since Oct 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$550.3k

Open P&L · 17 positions

−$5,743

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

724d

966 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	2	1.8	+9.3 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$19.6k	98%	150d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$20.8k	89%	150d ago	called
Nets vs. Celtics	LOW BUY Celtics @ 92¢	$11.4k	92%	238d ago	called

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98¢$19.6k

LOW onlyinvegas · 150d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 89¢$20.8k

LOW onlyinvegas · 150d ago

Nets vs. Celticscalled

BUY Celtics @ 92¢$11.4k

LOW onlyinvegas · 238d ago

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