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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -15.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$34.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$37.0k
Last 30 days −$12.0k · $360.4k volume · 48 trades · since May 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,603
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$18.5k
Closed-position win rate
63%
19 closed
Wallet age · markets
155d
32 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $22.3k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $12.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc3aa52…