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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +8.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.0 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$48.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$23.2k
Last 30 days +$391 · $3.39M volume · 330 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,058
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$31.7k
Closed-position win rate
55%
89 closed
Wallet age · markets
564d
91 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | +8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $10.8k | called |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6.8¢ | $13.4k | missed |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 11¢ | $14.3k | called |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.8¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc395b6…