Simbaaaa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +42.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$1,227No · avg 92¢ → 97¢ · $24.0k

Price-adjusted edge

+42.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.6

Flagged volume

$570.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$207.6k

Last 30 days +$2,332 · $5.49M volume · 3,125 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$347.4k

Open P&L · 248 positions

−$240.7k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

673d

1977 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.6	+42.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	HIGH SELL Argentina @ 67¢	$138.4k 2.9× usual	33%	112d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢	$188.9k 4.0× usual	94%	112d ago	called
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$27.9k	58%	148d ago	called
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$54.9k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.7¢	$44.1k	1%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$22.0k	67%	202d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢	$48.5k	2%	205d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 92.7¢	$45.9k	93%	209d ago	missed

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advanceexcluded

SELL Argentina @ 67¢$138.4k

HIGH Simbaaaa · 112d ago

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancecalled

BUY Argentina @ 94¢$188.9k

MED Simbaaaa · 112d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

BUY Yes @ 58¢$27.9k

LOW Simbaaaa · 148d ago

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$54.9k

LOW Simbaaaa · 185d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.7¢$44.1k

LOW Simbaaaa · 194d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$22.0k

LOW Simbaaaa · 202d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL No @ 97.7¢$48.5k

LOW Simbaaaa · 205d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed

BUY No @ 92.7¢$45.9k

LOW Simbaaaa · 209d ago

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