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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +38.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+38.3 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$107.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$72.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.95M volume · 6,959 trades · since Mar 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$53.7k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$18.3k
Closed-position win rate
50%
278 closed
Wallet age · markets
218d
271 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | +38.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $14.5k | called |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Pistons @ 83¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 68¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 65¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $17.7k | called |
 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Houston Cougars @ 38¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
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