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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -12.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.4 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$205.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.22M volume · 2,984 trades · since Oct 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$48.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
85%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
727d
519 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -18.1 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $10.9k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $69.7k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $58.6k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 96.4¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93.3¢ | $21.3k | missed |
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