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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -58.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-58.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$78.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.1k
Last 30 days −$4,847 · $5.69M volume · 225 trades · since Apr 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$70.0k
Open P&L · 29 positions
−$58.9k
Closed-position win rate
31%
26 closed
Wallet age · markets
192d
52 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | -58.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.9k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $11.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xbc2635…