0xbb39…ee8a

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +0.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+0.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$106.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$55.4k

Last 30 days −$822 · $14.90M volume · 37,333 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$183.6k

Open P&L · 9 positions

−$171

Closed-position win rate

62%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

290d

374 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	1.0	+0.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$29.7k 2.6× usual	11%	200d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$13.1k	96%	200d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢	$11.4k	3%	221d ago	missed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$11.5k	96%	243d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$10.7k	96%	244d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$19.3k	96%	245d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$11.1k	1%	245d ago	excluded

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL No @ 89¢$29.7k

MED 0xbb39…ee8a · 200d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY No @ 96.5¢$13.1k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 200d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?missed

SELL No @ 96.9¢$11.4k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 221d ago

Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?called

BUY No @ 96¢$11.5k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 243d ago

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96.5¢$10.7k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 244d ago

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96.3¢$19.3k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 245d ago

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 98.8¢$11.1k

LOW 0xbb39…ee8a · 245d ago

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