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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +42.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+42.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$133.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$195.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.99M volume · 3,875 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$838.7k
Open P&L · 214 positions
−$1.02M
Closed-position win rate
92%
245 closed
Wallet age · markets
295d
446 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 77¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 66¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 59¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $11.3k | called |
 UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) | LOW SELL Tyrell Fortune @ 99.9¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xba8179…