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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -73.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-73.8 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$25.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$70.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $761.9k volume · 721 trades · since Apr 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$12.1k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$58.0k
Closed-position win rate
94%
64 closed
Wallet age · markets
202d
63 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | -73.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $11.9k | missed |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 31¢ | $13.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb6c258…