tnl

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -43.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$54.0kYes · avg 29¢ → 12¢ · $40.2k Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?−$377No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $34.6k Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?+$11.3kYes · avg 37¢ → 74¢ · $22.5k Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?+$1,152Yes · avg 68¢ → 84¢ · $6,100 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?+$1,357No · avg 62¢ → 82¢ · $5,460 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$188No · avg 94¢ → 97.8¢ · $4,888 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?+$475No · avg 85¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,725 Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?+$392No · avg 88¢ → 97.2¢ · $3,985

Price-adjusted edge

-43.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$51.9k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$20.1k

Last 30 days −$67.6k · $18.13M volume · 25,344 trades · since Aug 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$778.7k

Open P&L · 81 positions

−$54.9k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

787d

1306 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.4	-43.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢	$14.0k	56%	98d ago	excluded
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 0.4¢	$16.0k	0%	142d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL No @ 57¢	$10.3k	43%	171d ago	missed
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢	$11.7k	50%	203d ago	excluded

Will France win on 2026-07-18?excluded

BUY Yes @ 56¢$14.0k

LOW tnl · 98d ago

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY Yes @ 0.4¢$16.0k

LOW tnl · 142d ago

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?missed

SELL No @ 57¢$10.3k

LOW tnl · 171d ago

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?excluded

BUY Yes @ 50¢$11.7k

LOW tnl · 203d ago

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