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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +51.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+51.1 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$35.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $655.5k volume · 1,361 trades · since May 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$3,765
Closed-position win rate
76%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
165d
51 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | +51.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $11.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 39¢ | $13.6k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $10.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb48042…