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baliorn

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$287Yes · avg 20¢ → 4.5¢ · $85
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$51.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$7,760
Last 30 days −$46 · $287.4k volume · 140 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$7,097
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$661
Closed-position win rate
59%
64 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
62 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢ $12.0k90% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $11.6k1% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $11.6k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $15.9k85% 247d agoexcluded

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb1e168…