0xb121…b73c

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?+$382No · avg 93.7¢ → 95.3¢ · $22.8k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$275Yes · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,575 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?+$237No · avg 89¢ → 96.9¢ · $2,907 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?−$823Yes · avg 86¢ → 12¢ · $127 · 0 proven with, 1 against

Price-adjusted edge

+3.5 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$93.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$8,454

Last 30 days +$233 · $569.8k volume · 539 trades · since Feb 22, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$11.4k

Open P&L · 4 positions

+$71

Closed-position win rate

97%

38 closed

Wallet age · markets

244d

42 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$10.2k	0%	147d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢	$11.0k	98%	168d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$15.0k	96%	203d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢	$14.7k	2%	218d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 95.8¢	$31.6k 2.5× usual	96%	221d ago	called
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢	$10.8k	2%	221d ago	excluded

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.2k

LOW 0xb121…b73c · 147d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded

BUY No @ 98.1¢$11.0k

LOW 0xb121…b73c · 168d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called

BUY No @ 96.5¢$15.0k

LOW 0xb121…b73c · 203d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 98.3¢$14.7k

LOW 0xb121…b73c · 218d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?called

BUY No @ 95.8¢$31.6k

MED 0xb121…b73c · 221d ago

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 97.8¢$10.8k

LOW 0xb121…b73c · 221d ago

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