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+$320No · avg 72¢ → 96.4¢ · $1,262+$133Yes · avg 34¢ → 82¢ · $225
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -21.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-21.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$125.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$56.6k
Last 30 days +$89 · $5.72M volume · 2,971 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$61.3k
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$452
Closed-position win rate
64%
191 closed
Wallet age · markets
654d
174 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | -37.5 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $14.3k | missed |
 Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $23.3k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $26.8k 2.0× usual |
called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.2k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $10.3k | called |
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