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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +62.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+62.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$85.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,917
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.18M volume · 4,181 trades · since May 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$75.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$15.0k
Closed-position win rate
48%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
517d
518 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +62.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 62¢ | $11.4k | called |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xab4f78…