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alaskabaked

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +44.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+44.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$208.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$447.0k
Last 30 days −$136.7k · $17.62M volume · 4,040 trades · since Jun 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.09M
Open P&L · 226 positions
−$1.15M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
145d
1650 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports110.6+44.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Cavaliers vs. 76ersLOW BUY 76ers @ 56¢ $13.7k56% 1d agocalled
Almaty Open: Terence Atmane vs Mattia BellucciLOW SELL Terence Atmane @ 99.9¢ $14.0k0% 2d agoexcluded
Ningbo Open: Iva Jovic vs Jasmine PaoliniLOW SELL Iva Jovic @ 99.9¢ $10.1k0% 2d agoexcluded
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $11.4k0% 2d agoexcluded
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.7k0% 2d agoexcluded
Cowboys vs. PackersLOW SELL Packers @ 99.9¢ $13.4k0% 5d agoexcluded
Indiana vs. NebraskaLOW SELL Indiana @ 99.9¢ $10.2k0% 13d agoexcluded
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaLOW SELL Elena Rybakina @ 99.9¢ $11.7k0% 41d agoexcluded
Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena RybakinaLOW SELL Iga Swiatek @ 99.9¢ $16.5k0% 64d agoexcluded
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio CobolliLOW SELL Flavio Cobolli @ 99.9¢ $10.1k0% 64d agoexcluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-08-19?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.4k0% 65d agoexcluded
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY France @ 56¢ $11.6k56% 101d agoexcluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsLOW SELL Milwaukee Brewers @ 99.9¢ $14.8k0% 108d agoexcluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ $15.0k54% 111d agoexcluded
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to ScoreLOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $29.5k
2.2× usual
0% 113d agoexcluded

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