← Wallets
−$10No · avg 74¢ → 72¢ · $358
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -21.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-21.3 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$474.3k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$105.3k
Last 30 days +$155 · $2.58M volume · 1,866 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$103.9k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$1,404
Closed-position win rate
54%
260 closed
Wallet age · markets
815d
248 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +52.0 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | -58.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 43¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 73¢ | $14.6k | missed |
 Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $21.1k | called |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | MED SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $215.5k 10.2× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $150.9k 7.1× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa8fa67…