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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -24.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-24.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$46.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$44.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $609.7k volume · 71 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$43.6k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$399
Closed-position win rate
38%
16 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -24.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $21.6k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa8c025…