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MicroShift

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$321.0k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$21.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.51M volume · 478 trades · since May 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$21.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
64%
36 closed
Wallet age · markets
528d
36 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 55¢ $20.5k45% 153d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $40.0k84% 164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 65¢ $40.3k35% 164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 66¢ $20.5k66% 164d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $20.7k17% 164d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $19.9k84% 164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 65¢ $19.9k35% 164d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 62¢ $38.2k62% 165d agomissed
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $19.8k21% 191d agomissed
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $11.9k86% 192d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $23.0k14% 202d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $14.8k71% 220d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.7k0% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $10.8k80% 449d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 55¢$20.5k
LOW MicroShift · 153d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 84¢$40.0k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?called
SELL No @ 65¢$40.3k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 66¢$20.5k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 83¢$20.7k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 84¢$19.9k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?called
SELL No @ 65¢$19.9k
LOW MicroShift · 164d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 62¢$38.2k
LOW MicroShift · 165d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed
SELL No @ 79¢$19.8k
LOW MicroShift · 191d ago
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY No @ 86¢$11.9k
LOW MicroShift · 192d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 86¢$23.0k
LOW MicroShift · 202d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 71¢$14.8k
LOW MicroShift · 220d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$20.7k
LOW MicroShift · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 80¢$10.8k
LOW MicroShift · 449d ago

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