bin8888

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -39.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?−$970No · avg 72¢ → 52¢ · $2,437 Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?+$63No · avg 91¢ → 96.9¢ · $1,035

Price-adjusted edge

-39.5 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$241.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$553.5k

Last 30 days +$42 · $4.97M volume · 3,541 trades · since Mar 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$565.3k

Open P&L · 16 positions

−$11.6k

Closed-position win rate

77%

48 closed

Wallet age · markets

230d

61 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.4	-39.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$23.0k	11%	183d ago	missed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$14.1k	12%	184d ago	missed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 89¢	$20.6k	11%	184d ago	missed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$27.8k	11%	185d ago	missed
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$25.9k	1%	188d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$24.3k	99%	196d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$10.7k	68%	199d ago	called
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$37.6k	75%	199d ago	called
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$20.4k	78%	199d ago	called
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$21.3k	80%	199d ago	called
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	LOW BUY No @ 39¢	$15.5k	39%	228d ago	missed

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$23.0k

MED bin8888 · 183d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$14.1k

LOW bin8888 · 184d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$20.6k

LOW bin8888 · 184d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$27.8k

MED bin8888 · 185d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$25.9k

LOW bin8888 · 188d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$24.3k

LOW bin8888 · 196d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?called

BUY No @ 68¢$10.7k

LOW bin8888 · 199d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?called

BUY No @ 75¢$37.6k

LOW bin8888 · 199d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?called

BUY No @ 78¢$20.4k

LOW bin8888 · 199d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?called

BUY No @ 80¢$21.3k

LOW bin8888 · 199d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?missed

BUY No @ 39¢$15.5k

LOW bin8888 · 228d ago

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