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Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
Norway vs. England: Team to Advanceexcluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -3.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$116.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$104.8k
Last 30 days −$0 · $3.52M volume · 1,791 trades · since Sep 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$210.4k
Open P&L · 164 positions
−$312.8k
Closed-position win rate
67%
359 closed
Wallet age · markets
774d
514 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -21.6 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +14.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $27.4k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 68¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 78¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $15.0k | called |
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missedBUY Yes @ 22¢$27.4k
MED dotheoppositeofme · 103d ago
Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceexcludedBUY England @ 68¢$13.7k
LOW dotheoppositeofme · 105d ago
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