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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -15.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$71.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,523
Last 30 days +$0 · $259.0k volume · 160 trades · since Dec 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,459
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$6,058
Closed-position win rate
84%
25 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
30 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $20.0k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa74c23…