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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +28.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +22.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+28.1 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$216.1k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$71k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance at 51¢) and the edge is +22.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
80% vs 52% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$242.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.66M volume · 434 trades · since Nov 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$597.7k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$459.4k
Closed-position win rate
75%
20 closed
Wallet age · markets
354d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 4 | 2.6 | +28.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 68¢ | $98.7k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $19.9k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $47.9k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL No @ 70¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 55¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $10.7k | missed |
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