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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -5.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.9 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$152.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$373.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.73M volume · 267 trades · since Nov 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$84.8k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$449.8k
Closed-position win rate
55%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
1436d
13 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -5.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $112.4k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.8¢ | $20.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa6149b…