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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +30.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+30.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$581.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$431.9k
Last 30 days −$106.5k · $6.77M volume · 450 trades · since Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$546.1k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$113.6k
Closed-position win rate
72%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
201d
24 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +30.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $14.0k | called |
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ | $328.5k 23.5× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ | $181.8k 13.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6¢ | $10.5k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 5¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $12.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa5517e…