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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -16.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$74.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$42.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.19M volume · 284 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$25.5k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$5,321
Closed-position win rate
60%
83 closed
Wallet age · markets
135d
140 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -16.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 93.8¢ | $28.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa426b7…