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+$5,568No · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $55.6k−$6,903Yes · avg 60¢ → 18¢ · $3,097 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -43.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-43.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$411.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.7k
Last 30 days −$2,181 · $2.24M volume · 124 trades · since Mar 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$654
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$26.3k
Closed-position win rate
78%
18 closed
Wallet age · markets
234d
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -43.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $110.1k 3.3× usual |
called |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $117.1k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $28.6k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $73.6k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $20.0k | called |
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