← Wallets
+$17.7kNo · avg 83¢ → 95.5¢ · $133.6k−$5,076Yes · avg 24¢ → 17¢ · $11.6k−$441Yes · avg 68¢ → 60¢ · $3,090+$78No · avg 95.2¢ → 97.7¢ · $3,088+$96No · avg 91.3¢ → 97.5¢ · $1,513+$62No · avg 91.6¢ → 95.5¢ · $1,502−$3,859Yes · avg 10¢ → 2.2¢ · $1,125+$532No · avg 45¢ → 98.2¢ · $982
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did +8.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.2 pts
Called / graded
7/9
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$188.9k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$15k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? at 58¢) and the edge is +4.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
67% vs 58% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=4
80–100¢
50% vs 87% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$165.7k
Last 30 days −$3,367 · $3.41M volume · 4,692 trades · since Nov 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$207.8k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$49.0k
Closed-position win rate
67%
171 closed
Wallet age · markets
347d
194 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +29.5 pts |
| Sports | 7 | 5 | 4.8 | +2.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.6k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $13.7k | missed |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $12.4k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.6k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $16.6k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $39.7k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $39.4k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
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