katie26

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -10.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-10.9 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$183.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$42.7k

Last 30 days −$2,985 · $10.65M volume · 10,168 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$180.4k

Open P&L · 3 positions

−$421

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

140d

1700 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.1	-10.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 99¢	$30.4k	99%	109d ago	excluded
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$17.5k	97%	125d ago	excluded
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$21.8k	99%	126d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$19.4k	97%	127d ago	excluded
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$19.9k	100%	128d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢	$27.2k	97%	129d ago	excluded
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢	$16.6k	94%	131d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢	$18.8k	94%	133d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$11.7k	11%	134d ago	missed

Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Argentina @ 99¢$30.4k

LOW katie26 · 109d ago

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97¢$17.5k

LOW katie26 · 125d ago

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99¢$21.8k

LOW katie26 · 126d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97¢$19.4k

LOW katie26 · 127d ago

Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$19.9k

LOW katie26 · 128d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97¢$27.2k

LOW katie26 · 129d ago

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?excluded

BUY Yes @ 93.8¢$16.6k

LOW katie26 · 131d ago

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?excluded

BUY Yes @ 94¢$18.8k

LOW katie26 · 133d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 11¢$11.7k

LOW katie26 · 134d ago

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