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ratehikes

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$13.9kYes · avg 61¢ → 96.2¢ · $37.8kWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?+$1,737Yes · avg 24¢ → 74¢ · $2,555Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?+$1No · avg 97¢ → 97¢ · $1,975Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?+$1,603Yes · avg 11¢ → 69¢ · $1,901Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?+$521No · avg 56¢ → 98¢ · $1,215Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?+$20Yes · avg 18¢ → 18¢ · $883Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?−$383Yes · avg 16¢ → 9¢ · $494
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$150.0k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$213.7k
Last 30 days −$129.0k · $4.81M volume · 1,893 trades · since May 04, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$291.7k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$79.2k
Closed-position win rate
50%
38 closed
Wallet age · markets
173d
237 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Titans vs. RavensLOW BUY Ravens @ 86¢ $12.0k86% 19d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ $28.2k50% 46d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 43¢ $18.8k43% 50d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 44¢ $21.7k44% 50d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 40¢ $69.3k
3.2× usual
40% 73d agocalled
Titans vs. Ravensexcluded
BUY Ravens @ 86¢$12.0k
LOW ratehikes · 19d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 50¢$28.2k
LOW ratehikes · 46d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 43¢$18.8k
LOW ratehikes · 50d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 44¢$21.7k
LOW ratehikes · 50d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 40¢$69.3k
MED ratehikes · 73d ago

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