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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +3.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.8 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$56.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$8,962
Last 30 days +$0 · $233.4k volume · 74 trades · since May 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8,962
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
15 closed
Wallet age · markets
159d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.7 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $13.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $28.8k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa2b417…