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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -39.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-39.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$178.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$18.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $712.6k volume · 92 trades · since May 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$43.5k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$25.0k
Closed-position win rate
73%
26 closed
Wallet age · markets
156d
26 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -39.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 86¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 95.6¢ | $118.0k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa1fbe3…