← Wallets
−$12.9kYes · avg 36¢ → 26¢ · $32.8k−$513Yes · avg 22¢ → 8.2¢ · $295+$57Republican Party · avg 1.4¢ → 2.1¢ · $171−$161Yes · avg 9.2¢ → 2.2¢ · $50
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -73.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-73.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$11.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$48.9k
Last 30 days −$4,684 · $1.52M volume · 1,282 trades · since Jul 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$18.2k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$30.2k
Closed-position win rate
67%
101 closed
Wallet age · markets
460d
100 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -73.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $11.0k | missed |
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