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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$265.1k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,170
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.18M volume · 1,333 trades · since Nov 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2,170
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
56%
175 closed
Wallet age · markets
698d
162 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $99.9k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ | $24.6k | missed |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $19.7k | called |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ | $100.0k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa099b4…