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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -8.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$34.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$16.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $415.9k volume · 2,537 trades · since Jan 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$36.5k
Open P&L · 74 positions
−$52.3k
Closed-position win rate
79%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
285d
185 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -8.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $21.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $13.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa0140e…