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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -67.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-67.5 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$397.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$540.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.40M volume · 1,002 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.07M
Open P&L · 207 positions
−$1.57M
Closed-position win rate
77%
282 closed
Wallet age · markets
292d
491 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -67.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 56¢ | $47.5k | excluded |
 Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces | LOW BUY Las Vegas Aces @ 68¢ | $24.9k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $68.3k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $126.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $75.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $55.0k | excluded |
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