Derbob

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did -28.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo+$1,035No · avg 82¢ → 96¢ · $7,098 US strike on Mexico by December 31?+$998No · avg 76¢ → 96.3¢ · $4,627

Price-adjusted edge

-28.3 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

2.8

Flagged volume

$162.6k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$19.6k

Last 30 days +$339 · $323.7k volume · 67 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$21.7k

Open P&L · 3 positions

−$2,110

Closed-position win rate

96%

28 closed

Wallet age · markets

363d

31 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	3	2	2.8	-28.3 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$49.9k	96%	162d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$30.9k	94%	173d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢	$29.6k	97%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢	$29.5k	72%	195d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$10.7k	72%	195d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$11.9k	95%	255d ago	missed

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 96¢$49.9k

LOW Derbob · 162d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 94¢$30.9k

LOW Derbob · 173d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

BUY No @ 97.1¢$29.6k

LOW Derbob · 194d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

BUY Yes @ 72¢$29.5k

LOW Derbob · 195d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded

BUY No @ 72¢$10.7k

LOW Derbob · 195d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?missed

BUY No @ 95¢$11.9k

LOW Derbob · 255d ago

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