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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -54.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-54.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$531.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$570.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.23M volume · 89 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$785
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$568.1k
Closed-position win rate
50%
2 closed
Wallet age · markets
137d
6 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -54.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $119.0k 4.0× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $337.8k 11.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $27.7k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $29.5k | called |
 Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $17.1k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x9ba708…