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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +56.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+56.9 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$12.25M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.75M
Last 30 days +$0 · $26.06M volume · 442 trades · since Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6.21M
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$8.87M
Closed-position win rate
100%
5 closed
Wallet age · markets
133d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +56.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY No @ 36¢ | $180.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $7.79M 13.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $600.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 44¢ | $3.23M 5.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 43¢ | $451.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x99aea8…